Welcome to a new video. Friends, the stock of Adani Total Gas has given a return of 7.5% in just one day, which means today. And if I talk about the last five days, it has already given more than 24% return. Now when a stock gives a 24% return in five days, everyone starts noticing it. It must have come into your notice as well. If it has, then please do like the video. I hope I have caught the topic you were searching for.
So the big question now is: Is Adani Total Gas starting a new journey from here, or is it going to trap investors again? Because if we look at the five-year trend, the stock is still around 17% negative, and many investors are still trapped in it. Even if you look at the one-year return, it has given only about 1.5% return in the entire year.
So from here, is it the beginning of a new journey with new targets and new investors, or is it just another trap for retail investors?
First, let's talk about the fundamentals rather than technicals. Why? Because if we have bought this stock, we need to decide whether we should hold it for the long term or exit with a stop-loss.
So the first thing we check is shareholding.
Promoter holding is 74%, which is very good.
Apart from that, FII holding is above 12% (12.81%), which is also strong.
DII holding is around 6.25%, which is decent.
And the public holding is only about 5.63%, which indicates that most of the shares are held by big investors and institutions. This is a positive sign because the stock is largely controlled by major players.
Now if we look at the company's performance:
Revenue is increasing year after year
Net profit is growing year after year
Earnings per share (EPS) is also increasing
Talking about debt, the company sometimes reduces it and sometimes it increases slightly, but overall it is not a risky company. Its Debt-to-Equity ratio is around 0.42. Generally, companies with a ratio above 1 are considered risky, so this is within a safe range.
Now another important question: the company is making profit, but is it converting that profit into cash? For that, we check the cash flow statement. The operating cash flow is positive, which means the company does not have issues in running its business. This is again a good sign.
Looking at the balance sheet, the company has reserves and surplus of around ₹4,097 crore as of March 2025, which has been increasing year after year.
There is no significant long-term or short-term borrowing.
The company has trade payables of ₹313 crore, while receivables are around ₹424 crore.
It also has cash and cash equivalents of about ₹468 crore.
So overall, it is a cash-rich company and fundamentally strong. Even if someone gets trapped in this stock, it can still be held for the long term, because strong investors are involved and the fundamentals look solid.
Now let's talk about the technical view.
On the hourly chart, there is a trendline. Until there is a clear breakout, you should avoid fresh buying.
If the breakout happens, then you can take a trade with a small stop-loss at ₹596 or ₹593, and the target on the upside will be ₹704.
Otherwise, on the downside, the stock may try to fill the gap between ₹567 and ₹552. If the price comes there and shows a reversal, or breaks the trendline upward, then we can again look for a target of ₹704 with a stop-loss around ₹552.
So the best opportunity could be between ₹567 and ₹552. If a breakout comes from there, you can take a trade with ₹552 stop-loss and ₹704 target.
Otherwise, it is better to avoid the stock for now.
If we look at the larger timeframe, there is still no clear bullish trend. Only one strong candle has formed, and it can also reverse completely. So we need to trade carefully based on the situation.
Remember one important level:
If the stock falls below ₹552, it may turn bearish again and continue its downtrend.
On the downside, there is also a strong support around ₹523. From that level, we can consider buying only if a clear reversal signal appears.
If you buy around ₹524, the possible targets could be ₹552 and ₹567.
The big target will only come after the stock moves above ₹567.
So keep this in mind: only if the stock sustains above ₹567 and moves toward ₹704 will we expect a bigger move. Otherwise, it may again continue its downtrend.
For long-term investment, it is still not the right time. Yes, the company is fundamentally strong, but the trend has not reversed yet. It is still in a downtrend.
When will the trend truly reverse?
When the stock moves above ₹704 and sustains there for a few months—maybe two, three, or even six months. After that, we could see a strong rally, and in the long term the stock might move toward ₹1,235.
I hope everything is clear now. If you liked the video, please like and share it. For more such videos, subscribe to the channel and press the bell icon.
I will see you in the next video. Until then, take care. And always remember, before taking any trade, consult your financial advisor, because the risk is yours.
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